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When historians of the future look back at the sunset of the United States, they will argue vociferously about when it started. They will all have definitive causes that brought the US low by the 2040 which allow them to have lucrative interbook deals to buy enough owl repellent to keep their children safe on the way to school. All of them will agree though, that regardless of the cause, the United States' confrontation of Iran about its nuclear weapons was the public revealation of its weakness.
Deep down, it's our own damn fault. Iran is strong and capable because they wanted to be and we didn't give them the opportunity to be weak.
We sponsored Saddam Hussein to fight a war by proxy for us. Iran has always considered southern Iraq theirs anway, the word Iraq means "outer Persia", so it wasn't a hard fight to start.
We did our best to cut them off from the world with sanctions after the Islamic Revolution. That only works so well when they shared a border with the Soviet Union. Nowadays, Russia trades with them more than it ever did when they were Soviet and more than just weapons. Same with China. But now the rest of the world is eager for their trade as well.
Sanctions did not work well because Iran is a resource and talent rich country. It is not a third world festering hole and never has been. The people of Iran are not wanting for basic needs like those of Ethiopia or Somalia, they just lack luxuries like Coke and Adidas and the freedom to buy them on the open market (their black market is rich and vibrant).
Short of physical force, we have failed to cow Iran for one simple reason: They Don't Need Us
American foreign policy and, to a large extent, the global geopolitical dynamic since WWI has been driven by the American economy. Iran's economy is not connected directly to ours and they like it that way. If we would flex economic will over them, we must do it by proxy through those who do trade with them.
I somehow doubt we can marshal that kind of unity of vision and support in the international community any more.
There are three options I see to deal with the nascent nuclear weapons program:
1) Invade Iran - I seriously doubt we have the military ability to pursue this course without significant public support, which I don't really see materializing. We would need a genuine coalition of the willing to make a first strike invasion. I'm afraid the UN doesn't do that. So the US would have to go it alone, we would be invading a larger, much more capable and equiped nation. We would lose.
2) Negotiate With Iran - Really, we have nothing to negotiate with. "Not bombing you" is not a very good bargaining position. We would have to pay/compensate them to not continue with their program. It would have to be damn good, because its not like they don't already have decent trade. Nothing to really keep them from deciding to start again either. In the olden days this would be called paying tribute. The superpower effectively kneeling, we lose again.
3) Isolationist And Ignore - The most directly safe route, but also the proof positive that America doesn't matter anymore. Events occur without us, proving they can occur without us, so we lose our hand in any number of future matters.
As the Babylonians, Greeks, Romans, Turks, and British all learned to their loss, ignore the Persians at your peril. I see a future where Iran starts taking up its ancestral Persian borders again. Southern Iraq and western Afghanistan are practically theirs already.
Deep down, it's our own damn fault. Iran is strong and capable because they wanted to be and we didn't give them the opportunity to be weak.
We sponsored Saddam Hussein to fight a war by proxy for us. Iran has always considered southern Iraq theirs anway, the word Iraq means "outer Persia", so it wasn't a hard fight to start.
We did our best to cut them off from the world with sanctions after the Islamic Revolution. That only works so well when they shared a border with the Soviet Union. Nowadays, Russia trades with them more than it ever did when they were Soviet and more than just weapons. Same with China. But now the rest of the world is eager for their trade as well.
Sanctions did not work well because Iran is a resource and talent rich country. It is not a third world festering hole and never has been. The people of Iran are not wanting for basic needs like those of Ethiopia or Somalia, they just lack luxuries like Coke and Adidas and the freedom to buy them on the open market (their black market is rich and vibrant).
Short of physical force, we have failed to cow Iran for one simple reason: They Don't Need Us
American foreign policy and, to a large extent, the global geopolitical dynamic since WWI has been driven by the American economy. Iran's economy is not connected directly to ours and they like it that way. If we would flex economic will over them, we must do it by proxy through those who do trade with them.
I somehow doubt we can marshal that kind of unity of vision and support in the international community any more.
There are three options I see to deal with the nascent nuclear weapons program:
1) Invade Iran - I seriously doubt we have the military ability to pursue this course without significant public support, which I don't really see materializing. We would need a genuine coalition of the willing to make a first strike invasion. I'm afraid the UN doesn't do that. So the US would have to go it alone, we would be invading a larger, much more capable and equiped nation. We would lose.
2) Negotiate With Iran - Really, we have nothing to negotiate with. "Not bombing you" is not a very good bargaining position. We would have to pay/compensate them to not continue with their program. It would have to be damn good, because its not like they don't already have decent trade. Nothing to really keep them from deciding to start again either. In the olden days this would be called paying tribute. The superpower effectively kneeling, we lose again.
3) Isolationist And Ignore - The most directly safe route, but also the proof positive that America doesn't matter anymore. Events occur without us, proving they can occur without us, so we lose our hand in any number of future matters.
As the Babylonians, Greeks, Romans, Turks, and British all learned to their loss, ignore the Persians at your peril. I see a future where Iran starts taking up its ancestral Persian borders again. Southern Iraq and western Afghanistan are practically theirs already.
